What are Best Bets ?
Best bets equate to the tips that are issued by most tipsters (including TVB, prior to the 2020-21 season).
The are the best value bets available in mature markets, for big races.
Anyone with live bookmaker accounts should be able to back Best bets at advised prices: whilst if you are betting on the exchanges, it should generally be possible to achieve the advised price (or close to it) before the off (this is because the bets are all in mature markets - so price volatility should be relatively limited).
What are Matrix bets ?
Matrix betting was introduced into the service for the 2020-21 season.
Matrix bets can be used to support the Best bets, by providing additional betting opportunities - which in theory, this should result in a less volatile P&L.
Matrix betting originated in big field handicaps, where it can be used to dutch a number of selections (typically 4 or 5).
However, it can also be used to provide 'savers' for Best bets; and to cover the more speculative wagers, which don't warrant being Best bets.
How does Matrix betting actually work ?
Matrix bets are at their optimum, in competitive big field handicaps.
In a field of say 20 runners, it is often possible to eliminate half the field with relative confidence (the remaining half will win the race 90% of the time).
You can then take the remaining 10 runners and half it again - identifying those horses which are more likely to win.
Even if you are only just right (50%-40%), you will have managed to take a 20 runner field and reduce it to 5 horses who between them, have a 50% chance of winning the race.
With Matrix betting, all 5 of these horses are then backed, with a nominal 20 units spread across them.
Staking is adjusted dependant on perceived chance/price on offer, so that maximum returns are achieved on the horses fancied most/at the best prices.
Another situation where Matrix betting can be used, is when there is a strong fancy in a race - but there are also one or two significant dangers.
In this situation, the main fancy would be the 'Best bet' - with the dangers covered via the Matrix.
The final situation where Matrix betting is used, is when there is a fancy in the race - but it doesn't warrant being a Best bet.
In such situations, a few units from the Matrix can be staked on the horse.
Should I follow the ‘Matrix bets’ ? (in addition to the 'Best bets')
Whether to simply follow the Best bets - or also follow the Matrix bets - will be a personal choice…
The main advantage of the ‘Best bets’, is that they are easy to follow and simple to place.
However, they are susceptible to the vagaries of luck.
More effort is required to follow the ‘Matrix bets’ (as more bets need to be placed).
However, luck should be less of a factor (because of the greater spread of risk).
Matrix bets primarily provide cover for the Best bets. They may not be particularly profitable in their own right - but should result in a smoother P&L.
In terms of staking, then 1 point for Best bets, equates to 10 units for Matrix bets.
At the end of the season, it would be reasonable to expect the P&L to be similar - regardless of whether or not you followed The Matrix bets.
Why do you only run a service for 6 months of the year ?
I completely absorb myself in the racing for 6 months, in order to give it the best possible chance of success.
It’s all very intense – but I think it’s necessary to achieve that level of intensity, if you are going to be successful.
That said, I don’t honestly think it would be possible to maintain the same level of intensity for much longer.
Additionally, I have other commitments during the summer months, which would make it far more difficult for me to run a service.
Also, I really do love NH racing – and can think of no better way to fill the winter days !
Best bets equate to the tips that are issued by most tipsters (including TVB, prior to the 2020-21 season).
The are the best value bets available in mature markets, for big races.
Anyone with live bookmaker accounts should be able to back Best bets at advised prices: whilst if you are betting on the exchanges, it should generally be possible to achieve the advised price (or close to it) before the off (this is because the bets are all in mature markets - so price volatility should be relatively limited).
What are Matrix bets ?
Matrix betting was introduced into the service for the 2020-21 season.
Matrix bets can be used to support the Best bets, by providing additional betting opportunities - which in theory, this should result in a less volatile P&L.
Matrix betting originated in big field handicaps, where it can be used to dutch a number of selections (typically 4 or 5).
However, it can also be used to provide 'savers' for Best bets; and to cover the more speculative wagers, which don't warrant being Best bets.
How does Matrix betting actually work ?
Matrix bets are at their optimum, in competitive big field handicaps.
In a field of say 20 runners, it is often possible to eliminate half the field with relative confidence (the remaining half will win the race 90% of the time).
You can then take the remaining 10 runners and half it again - identifying those horses which are more likely to win.
Even if you are only just right (50%-40%), you will have managed to take a 20 runner field and reduce it to 5 horses who between them, have a 50% chance of winning the race.
With Matrix betting, all 5 of these horses are then backed, with a nominal 20 units spread across them.
Staking is adjusted dependant on perceived chance/price on offer, so that maximum returns are achieved on the horses fancied most/at the best prices.
Another situation where Matrix betting can be used, is when there is a strong fancy in a race - but there are also one or two significant dangers.
In this situation, the main fancy would be the 'Best bet' - with the dangers covered via the Matrix.
The final situation where Matrix betting is used, is when there is a fancy in the race - but it doesn't warrant being a Best bet.
In such situations, a few units from the Matrix can be staked on the horse.
Should I follow the ‘Matrix bets’ ? (in addition to the 'Best bets')
Whether to simply follow the Best bets - or also follow the Matrix bets - will be a personal choice…
The main advantage of the ‘Best bets’, is that they are easy to follow and simple to place.
However, they are susceptible to the vagaries of luck.
More effort is required to follow the ‘Matrix bets’ (as more bets need to be placed).
However, luck should be less of a factor (because of the greater spread of risk).
Matrix bets primarily provide cover for the Best bets. They may not be particularly profitable in their own right - but should result in a smoother P&L.
In terms of staking, then 1 point for Best bets, equates to 10 units for Matrix bets.
At the end of the season, it would be reasonable to expect the P&L to be similar - regardless of whether or not you followed The Matrix bets.
Why do you only run a service for 6 months of the year ?
I completely absorb myself in the racing for 6 months, in order to give it the best possible chance of success.
It’s all very intense – but I think it’s necessary to achieve that level of intensity, if you are going to be successful.
That said, I don’t honestly think it would be possible to maintain the same level of intensity for much longer.
Additionally, I have other commitments during the summer months, which would make it far more difficult for me to run a service.
Also, I really do love NH racing – and can think of no better way to fill the winter days !