What is Matrix betting ?
Conventionally, tipping (and betting) focuses on trying to find the best value bet in a race.
The rationale being, that over time, if you manage to secure a value price for all of your bets, you will win.
Whilst this is true - there are a couple of issues…
Firstly, securing a value price can be difficult (due to the fragility of markets and bookmakers unwillingness to lay a bet); and secondly, you are susceptible to the whims of luck (particularly if you bet win only).
Matrix betting aims to overcome these 2 issues, by focusing on trying to find the winner of a race, rather than the best value bet.
It does this by narrowing down races to ‘short-lists’ - and then backing multiple horses from the short list, in an attempt to cover all eventualities (thereby minimising the element of luck).
Obviously the price achieved is still very important - but if betting is limited to the biggest races, with the strongest markets, then prices (and securing them), becomes less of an issue.
How does Matrix betting actually work ?
There are 2 situations where Matrix betting can be deployed:
The first is in competitive big field handicaps.
In a field of 20 runners, it is often possible to eliminate half the field with relative confidence (the remaining half will win the race 90% of the time).
You can then take the remaining 10 runners and half it again - identifying those horses which are more likely to win.
Even if you are only just right (50%-40%), you will have managed to take a 20 runner field and reduce it to 5 horses who between them, have a 50% chance of winning the race.
With Matrix betting, all 5 of these horses are then backed, with a nominal 20 units spread across them.
Staking is adjusted dependant on perceived chance/price on offer, so that maximum returns are achieved on the horses fancied most/at the best prices.
The other situation where Matrix betting is used, is when there is a strong fancy in a race - but there are also one or two significant dangers.
In this situation, the majority of the nominal 20 units are staked on the main fancy - with the remainder used to recover stakes on the dangers.
Should I follow the service via the ‘best bets’ or the ‘matrix bets’
Which method suits best, will depend on the individual…
'Best bets' will be a subset of the 'Matrix bets'.
The advantage of the ‘best bets’, is that they are easy to follow - and simple to place.
However, they are vulnerable to the vagaries of luck.
More effort is required to follow the ‘Matrix bets’ (as more bets need to be placed).
However, luck should be less of a factor (meaning a smoother P&L).
In terms of staking, then 2 points for 'best bets', equates to 20 units for 'matrix bets'.
At the end of the season, I would expect the P&L for the 2 methods to be similar - assuming average luck.
Why do you only run a service for 6 months of the year ?
I completely absorb myself in the racing for 6 months, in order to give it the best possible chance of success.
It’s all very intense – but I think it’s necessary to achieve that level of intensity, if you are going to be successful.
That said, I don’t honestly think it would be possible to maintain the same level of intensity for much longer.
Additionally, I have other commitments during the summer months, which would make it far more difficult for me to run a service.
Also, I really do love NH racing – and can think of no better way to fill the winter days !
Conventionally, tipping (and betting) focuses on trying to find the best value bet in a race.
The rationale being, that over time, if you manage to secure a value price for all of your bets, you will win.
Whilst this is true - there are a couple of issues…
Firstly, securing a value price can be difficult (due to the fragility of markets and bookmakers unwillingness to lay a bet); and secondly, you are susceptible to the whims of luck (particularly if you bet win only).
Matrix betting aims to overcome these 2 issues, by focusing on trying to find the winner of a race, rather than the best value bet.
It does this by narrowing down races to ‘short-lists’ - and then backing multiple horses from the short list, in an attempt to cover all eventualities (thereby minimising the element of luck).
Obviously the price achieved is still very important - but if betting is limited to the biggest races, with the strongest markets, then prices (and securing them), becomes less of an issue.
How does Matrix betting actually work ?
There are 2 situations where Matrix betting can be deployed:
The first is in competitive big field handicaps.
In a field of 20 runners, it is often possible to eliminate half the field with relative confidence (the remaining half will win the race 90% of the time).
You can then take the remaining 10 runners and half it again - identifying those horses which are more likely to win.
Even if you are only just right (50%-40%), you will have managed to take a 20 runner field and reduce it to 5 horses who between them, have a 50% chance of winning the race.
With Matrix betting, all 5 of these horses are then backed, with a nominal 20 units spread across them.
Staking is adjusted dependant on perceived chance/price on offer, so that maximum returns are achieved on the horses fancied most/at the best prices.
The other situation where Matrix betting is used, is when there is a strong fancy in a race - but there are also one or two significant dangers.
In this situation, the majority of the nominal 20 units are staked on the main fancy - with the remainder used to recover stakes on the dangers.
Should I follow the service via the ‘best bets’ or the ‘matrix bets’
Which method suits best, will depend on the individual…
'Best bets' will be a subset of the 'Matrix bets'.
The advantage of the ‘best bets’, is that they are easy to follow - and simple to place.
However, they are vulnerable to the vagaries of luck.
More effort is required to follow the ‘Matrix bets’ (as more bets need to be placed).
However, luck should be less of a factor (meaning a smoother P&L).
In terms of staking, then 2 points for 'best bets', equates to 20 units for 'matrix bets'.
At the end of the season, I would expect the P&L for the 2 methods to be similar - assuming average luck.
Why do you only run a service for 6 months of the year ?
I completely absorb myself in the racing for 6 months, in order to give it the best possible chance of success.
It’s all very intense – but I think it’s necessary to achieve that level of intensity, if you are going to be successful.
That said, I don’t honestly think it would be possible to maintain the same level of intensity for much longer.
Additionally, I have other commitments during the summer months, which would make it far more difficult for me to run a service.
Also, I really do love NH racing – and can think of no better way to fill the winter days !