Minimising the impact of Luck
As a punter – and now as a tipster – the one thing I really fear, is luck…
My issue, is simply the uncertainty that it brings...
I can spend hours weighing up all aspects of a race, come to a conclusion on how it is likely to pan out – and then luck will intervene and everything will go out of the window…
Ofcourse, that is the nature of the beast we are dealing with when we are gambling on horses. There are a thousand and one variables that can affect the outcome of a race and it could never be possible control all of those.
However, I can assess and prioritise all of those variables and come to a decision on the most likely result, in a controlled fashion – until, that is, luck intervenes !!
Now you may be thinking that there isn’t a lot we can do about luck – but in this day and age, there is actually a fair bit we can do to manage its impact…
Each way betting can be considered a way of reducing the impact of luck; as can betting more (as this increases the sample size and therefore means luck should be more likely to even out).
That said, I would view both of these more as judgement calls, rather than luck managers.
I touched on it in Novembers monthly report, but one method which I believe you can use to manage luck, is the in-running market on Betfair…
I consider it my job, to try and find horses which can win races.
Of course, in order to win a race, you invariably need a little bit of luck – and that is the bit that I can’t control.
However, if I can find horses which either win races – or go close to winning races – and we use the tools available to us to manage our luck, we should have a winning combination.
Going back to the in-running market on Betfair…
If a horse goes below 2 in-running on Betfair, then the market has decided that at that point in time, it is more likely to win a particular race than it is to lose it.
As the price of a horse crosses that ‘2’ threshold on Betfair, it is like tossing a virtual coin, to decide whether or not you will win a race.
In the long run, if you either come out ahead or behind on those kind of horses, you can be considered, either lucky or unlucky…
But the question is, why take that chance ?
As I said in my opening sentence, the thing I fear most about betting, is that element of luck.
And here we have an opportunity to greatly reduce it – so why wouldn’t we take it ?
For roughly ten years now, that is precisely what I have done with almost every bet I have struck – I’ve layed it back on Betfair at a much lower price.
The reason for this is simple: I’m confident in my judgement – but I’m not so confident in my luck !
In a similar vein, I intend from now on, to quote my monthly numbers in both a ‘raw’ form (so reflecting how the tips passed the post) – but also in a form ‘adjusted for luck’ (so as if I had layed back the bet in-running at 2 on BF, to take half the profit whatever the outcome).
Whether as individuals, you would want to do the same thing, is entirely up to you…
I suspect that most of you guys are gamblers and so I won’t be at all surprised if you choose to continue without change.
However, I do not class myself as a gambler – and that is why I try to minimise the impact of luck, whenever I can…
My issue, is simply the uncertainty that it brings...
I can spend hours weighing up all aspects of a race, come to a conclusion on how it is likely to pan out – and then luck will intervene and everything will go out of the window…
Ofcourse, that is the nature of the beast we are dealing with when we are gambling on horses. There are a thousand and one variables that can affect the outcome of a race and it could never be possible control all of those.
However, I can assess and prioritise all of those variables and come to a decision on the most likely result, in a controlled fashion – until, that is, luck intervenes !!
Now you may be thinking that there isn’t a lot we can do about luck – but in this day and age, there is actually a fair bit we can do to manage its impact…
Each way betting can be considered a way of reducing the impact of luck; as can betting more (as this increases the sample size and therefore means luck should be more likely to even out).
That said, I would view both of these more as judgement calls, rather than luck managers.
I touched on it in Novembers monthly report, but one method which I believe you can use to manage luck, is the in-running market on Betfair…
I consider it my job, to try and find horses which can win races.
Of course, in order to win a race, you invariably need a little bit of luck – and that is the bit that I can’t control.
However, if I can find horses which either win races – or go close to winning races – and we use the tools available to us to manage our luck, we should have a winning combination.
Going back to the in-running market on Betfair…
If a horse goes below 2 in-running on Betfair, then the market has decided that at that point in time, it is more likely to win a particular race than it is to lose it.
As the price of a horse crosses that ‘2’ threshold on Betfair, it is like tossing a virtual coin, to decide whether or not you will win a race.
In the long run, if you either come out ahead or behind on those kind of horses, you can be considered, either lucky or unlucky…
But the question is, why take that chance ?
As I said in my opening sentence, the thing I fear most about betting, is that element of luck.
And here we have an opportunity to greatly reduce it – so why wouldn’t we take it ?
For roughly ten years now, that is precisely what I have done with almost every bet I have struck – I’ve layed it back on Betfair at a much lower price.
The reason for this is simple: I’m confident in my judgement – but I’m not so confident in my luck !
In a similar vein, I intend from now on, to quote my monthly numbers in both a ‘raw’ form (so reflecting how the tips passed the post) – but also in a form ‘adjusted for luck’ (so as if I had layed back the bet in-running at 2 on BF, to take half the profit whatever the outcome).
Whether as individuals, you would want to do the same thing, is entirely up to you…
I suspect that most of you guys are gamblers and so I won’t be at all surprised if you choose to continue without change.
However, I do not class myself as a gambler – and that is why I try to minimise the impact of luck, whenever I can…
Photo by Paolo Camera (https://www.flickr.com/photos/vegaseddie/) via: freeforcommercialuse.org